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Win the Wire: Week 13

Win the Wire: Week 13 Vincent Verhei 01 Dec 2020, 10:14 am

Miami Dolphins QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

With the fantasize playoffs simply one or two weeks apart depending on your formats, the Week 13 waiver cable helps the dual purpose of filling roster holes and prepping for plus matchups when they are their most important. Where relevant, I’ve included some tones on the playoff schedules of the players I recommend this week. Meanwhile, check out today’s Football Outsiders Fantasy Podcast to hear Aaron and I discuss those playoff schedules in greater detail.

Roster percentages are for ESPN/ Yahoo.

Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49 ers

60 %/ 56%

Hamstring and paw traumata have disrupted the pattern of Samuel’s sophomore season. But if you can sort through the missed and half-played games, it’s clear that last year’s second-half top-1 0 PPR receiver is still in there. Without Brandon Aiyuk accessible, Samuel exploded for 11 catches and 113 yards on 13 targets on Sunday. But even combined with his full starts in Weeks 5 and 6 alongside Aiyuk, Samuel has enjoyed a ponderous volume of 9.0 targets per health tournament this season.

Recommended FAB offer (% of maximum ): 100% Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: Yes

Wayne Gallman, RB, New York Giants

58 %/ 78%

Gallman had awkward breakout terming for fantasy. His firstly start for the purposes of an injured Devonta Freeman came on a Monday evening that offered fantasy musicians few recourses if Freeman were accidentally able to play. And then the Giants had their bye in Week 11. But now that we’re on the other side of that bye-bye and Freeman is not even eligible to return from injured modesty until Week 14, I can’t say I understand Gallman’s lethargic roster percentages. Since “hes taking” over as the team’s starter in Week 8, Gallman has a 49.6% carry share that is 12 th-highest at its own position. And his five rushing touchdowns in that time are fully supported by 4.82 opportunity-adjusted touchdowns, the third-highest total behind just Dalvin Cook and Josh Jacobs. I disbelieved Freeman parts into this even when he can return. And so that buds the only potential for reluctance with Daniel Jones’ hamstring injury. But Jones was averaging just 6.5 grounds per struggle this season, fourth-worst among positional qualifiers. Colt McCoy may be a replacement-level player, but he still was not possible to much of a steps down from the offensive effectivenes that supported Gallman’s consistent RB2 value.

Recommended FAB offer (% of peak ): 41% Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: Yes

Devontae Booker, RB, Las Vegas Raiders

6 %/ 9%

If Ian Rapoport’s early-Monday report is any indication, Josh Jacobs likely escaped a high-ankle injury that they are able to sideline him for multiple weeks. But even if Jacobs misses only one start, his backup Booker makes a worthwhile plug-and-play. He has tantalized manacle possible with three rushing touchdowns and 14 targets against precisely 59 carries as a backup this season. And Booker’s Week 13 foe, the Aircraft, boost both carries and running back targets as a frequent trailer in tournaments even though their disparity between defense against the drain( ninth in DVOA) and against the pass( 32 nd) would encourage passing.

Recommended FAB offer (% of maximum ): 36% Should “youre using” your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Zach Ertz, TE, Philadelphia Eagles

62 %/ 59%

The Eagles did not activate Ertz from injured modesty for their Monday night game against the Seahawks. But because they were marked the tighten death to return prior to their Week 12 play, Ertz will have to be active this coming Sunday against the Packers. I’m not sure I’m eager to start him in his return from a seven-week ankle injury. But for all of the drama about his contract status and poor receiving totals, Ertz had a 19.7% pre-injury target share that was top-five at his position. He is therefore necessary to rostered.

Recommended FAB offer (% of maximum ): 21% Should “youre using” your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Damien Harris, RB, New England Patriots

57 %/ 75%

James White has been the principal beneficiaries of Rex Burkhead’s season-ending knee injury so far, first with nine targets in Week 11 and then with two touchdowns in Week 12. But I suppose Sunday’s win over the Cardinal showed that it’s actually Harris who should benefit more over the rest of the season. White’s Week 11 outburst came on a 57% click share that was similar to his proportions in Weeks 4, 6, and 8 in Patriots losings that caused an increased reliance on the passing game. With a neutral game script on Sunday, Harris set his own season high with a 64% click share. White was back at his pre-Burkhead injury range of 38%, and Sony Michel played just one cracking in his return from his quadruplet hurt. That increase in playing time didn’t net Harris a target or a touchdown, two critical aspects of fantasy value. But it easily could have done the latter. Harris bested White with 1.21 opportunity-adjusted touchdowns versus 0.79 on Sunday. He really failed to punch in his carries from the Cardinals’ 7-, 4-, and 1-yard ways. He “shouldve been” better luck in future weeks. And with a 45.8% carry share since Week 7 that is 15 th at the position, some improved blessing could be all Harris needs to competitive Wayne Gallman’s has given rise to illusion relevance.

Recommended FAB offer (% of peak ): 16% Should “youre using” your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

J.K. Dobbins, RB, Baltimore Ravens

51 %/ 67%

Since the weigh of Ravens players who have tested positive for COVID has approached the 20 s in the lead-up to their now-Wednesday Week 12 competition, I think it’s fair to guess that Dobbins may have the illness and is no certainty to play in Week 13 even after he clears his required 10 -day isolation period. That may sabotage his rest-of-season fantasy value. But Dobbins also pestered a breakout back in Week 11 when he frisked 63% of the team’s offensive snaps and paced the team’s backfield with 17 contacts, 85 grounds, and a touchdown. He easily extends the three Ravens backs with a 25.2% rushing DVOA and 22 targets. That starts him a profitable workbench stash.

Recommended FAB offer (% of peak ): 15% Should “youre using” your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Myles Gaskin, RB, Miami Dolphins

70 %/ 69%

Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed both missed incredible imagination possibilities when they were forced to miss Sunday’s game against the Jet. And unless leader coach Brian Flores gratuities his hand with a proclaimed starter, they likely belong on fantasy benches again this week against another request resist in the Bengals( No. 23 DVOA run defense ). But Gaskin and Ahmed have both at times produced as RB2s as workhorse backs this season. The capacity that they could do it again when they return from their respective knee and shoulder traumata sees them both workbench caches with the bottom-five Chiefs, Patriots, and Raiders DVOA run defenses on the following schedule in the myth playoffs.

Recommended FAB offer (% of peak ): 12% Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Salvon Ahmed, RB, Miami Dolphins

49 %/ 38%

My amateur scout take from last week’s waiver column was that Ahmed has exceptional rush but little power to push the stilt. Now that both Dolphins backs are coming off an injury, I considered that sacrifices the edge to the sturdier Gaskin. But having in mind that Gaskin and Ahmed had nearly identical productivities when they were college teammates at Washington, and neither has a draft pedigree to speak of. The playing day could precipitate either way.

Recommended FAB offer (% of peak ): 12% Should “youre using” your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Jordan Wilkins, RB, Indianapolis Colts

22 %/ 17%

Wilkins couldn’t take advantage of a positive Titan matchup with Jonathan Taylor out on the COVID list. After they swiftly came behind, the Colts shifted to rely more heavily on receiving back Nyheim Hines, who finished with 10 targets, the most on the team. Still, Wilkins showed that he clearly is the inheritor of Taylor’s role in the latter’s absence. Most importantly from a fantasy attitude, Wilkins pictured four targets on Sunday for the first time all season — he had only once before this year seen two targets, a threshold Taylor reached in each of his last six competitions. For me, that’s enough evidence to start Wilkins at flex in even shallow formats in any of the Texans and Raiders matchups in the next three weeks that Taylor misses. Houston and Las Vegas are the bottom two teams in DVOA run defense and are top-five boosters of touchdowns per carry.

Recommended FAB offer (% of peak ): 11% Should “youre using” your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Alexander Mattison, RB, Minnesota Vikings

34 %/ 32%

Dalvin Cook was able to return to the Vikings’ Week 12 game against the Panthers after he exited it with an apparent ankle harm. That seems to be a promising sign that he can play in Week 13. Still, it seems like a reasonable move to add his backup Mattison as a handcuff merely in case. Mattison fared poorly in his Week 6 alternative start, but hindsight is a known fact that week’s Falcons adversary as a top-1 0 DVOA run defense. They time impounded Josh Jacobs to 27 gardens on seven carries. Mattison would almost surely fare better this Sunday against a Jaguars justification that is 21 st in DVOA run defense. Meanwhile, Mattison would be a decent facsimile of Cook if he superseded him over an extended stretch of duration. His 4.6 yards and 2.4 grounds after contact per endeavor mirror Cook’s charges of 5. 2 and 2.5. Mattison just comes short-lived in uniformity, where his 43.2% success rates is shy of Cook’s 53.0% rate.

Recommended FAB offer (% of peak ): 11% Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Michael Pittman, WR, Indianapolis Colts

37 %/ 58%

In the Colts’ blowout loss on Sunday, Pittman provided his first fantasy letdown since his return to full playing time in Week 9. And yet, I looked it as a positive for his imagination possible. Pittman continued to set the pace for Colts receivers with 86% of clicks frisked. He’s played 80% or more of the team’s snaps each of the last four weeks. Meanwhile, his two catches on Sunday came on a receiver-leading nine targets. He now has 27 targets over the past four weeks, 24 th-most at its own position. Because of their lack of a bye-bye and some pass-favoring game scripts in that pull, I wouldn’t recommend Pittman as an every-week flex option just yet. But the Texans and Raiders matchups that are sure to boost the Colts’ rushing production should also help Pittman. Both justifications are in the bottom half of crews in DVOA against the pass and bottom-1 0 in DVOA allowed to No. 1 receivers.

Recommended FAB offer (% of maximum ): 6% Should “youre using” your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Keke Coutee, WR, Houston Texans

0 %/ 1%

The Texans have been thin at receiver because they were sold DeAndre Hopkins in the offseason. But I think everyone assumed that an injury to either Will Fuller or Brandin Cooks would be the unit’s downfall. Instead, Fuller has been suspended for the rest of the season for transgressing the league’s performance-enhancing substance policy, and the timing couldn’t be worse after the team released Kenny Stills three days ago. By default, those developments should stir the leave former fourth-round receiver Coutee a fantasy alternative. He was third on the team with a 50% offensive grab share on Sunday, and behind Cooks ( 88% ), Fuller ( 84%) and him, exclusively Steven Mitchell( 14%) made a snap for the team at wide receiver.

Recommended FAB offer (% of maximum ): 5% Should “youre using” your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Ryan Tannehill, QB, Tennessee Titans

57 %/ 75%

As Derrick Henry has ramped up his traditional second-half rushing bonanza, Tannehill has descended from fantasy regard. He has averaged really 206 passing grounds and 1.7 delivering touchdowns in his last-place six activities and unsurprisingly then has lowered below the 80% doorstep I use as a agent for universal rostership. But Tannehill’s slump deserves some added framework. Since Week 7, he has faced five securities — the Steelers, Bears, Colts, Ravens, and Colts again — in the top nine in DVOA pass defense. Any passer would appreciate their yield slip against that planned. Meanwhile, things become much easier for Tannehill between now and the end of the fantasy playoffs. His next four dissidents in the Browns, Jaguars, Lions, and Packers are 15 th or worse in DVOA pass defense.

Recommended FAB offer (% of maximum ): 3% Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Miami Dolphins

22 %/ 20%

The other Ryan seems like a lesser fantasy option to me, but maybe he shouldn’t. Like Tannehill, Fitzpatrick was a top-1 2 delusion quarterback for the first six weeks this season before the onetime faced that difficult strain of opponents and before the latter was benched. Now Fitzpatrick could play if Tua Tagovailoa continues to miss time with his hand injury. And that would land Fitzpatrick every bit as appealing a fantasy schedule as his Ryan counterpart with the Dolphins positioned to face bottom-half DVOA pass defenses in the Bengals, Patriots, and Raiders in the next month.

Recommended FAB offer (% of peak ): 2% Should “youre using” your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Frank Gore, RB, New York Jets

19 %/ 25%

Despite head coach Adam Gase’s confidence, the Aircraft couldn’t turn Sam Darnold’s firstly game with his top three receivers into actual extents. The team composed only three of them at home against the Dolphins, and so there is little reason for confidence that Gore will suddenly orchestrate touchdowns in the knots that would impel him an RB2. Still, Gore deserves your illusion consideration because of subtle increases in his character following La’Mical Perine’s ankle injury. The last 2 weeks, Gore has played a season-high 58% of the Jets’ offensive snaps. He made 18 of the team’s 21 running back carries on Sunday, and he saw three targets for only the second time all season. The Raiders likely won’t play the Spurt flat on Sunday after ceasing consecutive games to the Chiefs and Falcons and falling behind in the AFC wild-card race. But Gore remains a compelling flex choice against them even in shallow formats. The Raiders are last-place in DVOA run defense and the No. 1 booster of touchdowns per carry.

Recommended FAB offer (% of maximum ): 2% Should “youre using” your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Robert Tonyan, TE, Green Bay Packers

41 %/ 61%

Tonyan never triggered the same confidence in me that he did in other fantasize advisers this season. His 13.0% target share since Week 2 is just 18 th among tighten aspirations, and while his seven touchdowns are held for “the worlds largest” at the position, his 4.41 -touchdown surplus over his just 2.59 opportunity-adjusted touchdowns is nearly doubled that of Jonnu Smith( 2.75) in second place. I still meditate regression will hit him there, although Travis Kelce’s 1.79 -touchdown surplus may be a better target than a strictly neutral one with touchdown-savant Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback. But I also think it’s time to warm to Tonyan’s demo status as a borderline TE1/ TE2. Even as Allen Lazard has returned to the lineup, Tonyan has maintained his offensive snap share range between 50% and 73%. And Tonyan should benefit from an appealing fantasy playoff schedule that peculiarities the Lions, Panthers, and Titans in the bottom half of units in DVOA allowed to tighten ends.

Recommended FAB offer (% of peak ): 2% Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Kyle Rudolph, TE, Minnesota Vikings

8 %/ 15%

Irv Smith played in Week 11, but he missed Weeks 10 and 12 with a groin trauma. That timeline plus a dubious call last week suggests to me that Smith suffered a setback and could miss another week or two as he tries to return to full state. That’s a small window for a relatively low-ceiling play, but tight culminate has fantasy administrators clawing for any kind of advantage this season. As such, I’ll suggest that desperate participates consider Rudolph. He had modest totals of 63 and 68 grounds in the two activities Smith missed. But his 78% crack shares those weeks are his highest and his five and eight targets are his most all season.

Recommended FAB offer (% of maximum ): 1% Should “youre using” your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Taysom Hill, QB, New Orleans Saints

68 %/ 59%

It may be supremely evident coming off his 16 -pass performance with precisely 78 grounds and an interception, but Taysom Hill’s fantasy mileage will alternate based on your format. This recommendation relies on one that praises rushing scores over legislating ones. Hill has four of the former in his two starts for the purposes of an disabled Drew Brees. And while that represents a 2.10 -touchdown surplus over precisely 1.90 opportunity-adjusted touchdowns in that time, that latter numeral remains the sixth-highest of all players the last two weeks. And Hill’s 0.070 opportunity-adjusted touchdowns per carry this season is the fourth-highest of the 19 quarterbacks with 25 or more carries. It’s neatly between Cam Newton’s 0.089 and Josh Allen’s 0.061 proportions, and I speculate Hill’s overall illusion appraise is somewhere between those participates too.

Recommended FAB offer (% of maximum ): 1% Should “youre using” your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Ito Smith, RB, Atlanta Falcons

1 %/ 1%

With Todd Gurley out on Sunday, the Falcons went to a committee approaching that witnessed Smith and Brian Hill finish within one carry and 10 hastening yards of each other. Given the split, the knee-jerk preference would be for Hill since he traditionally has handled more passing-down work — and despite his four-target shortfall on Sunday, Hill frisked 50% of the team’s offensive snarls versus precisely 36% for Smith. But for me, Smith compensates those concerns with a greater potential for touchdowns. He composed one in Week 12 and more than double-dealing Hill’s lucks with 0.38 opportunity-adjusted rushing touchdowns to 0.18. And over “the worlds biggest” test since the start of 2019, Smith has more than quadrupled Hill’s opportunity-adjusted touchdown rate with 0.071 versus 0.017 opportunity-adjusted touchdowns per carry. The Falcons may not enjoy the same run-positive game script in future weeks that they did in their 43 -6 drubbing of the Raiders. But with the No. 17 DVOA passing offense, the team has generated enough tallying chances for Gurley to land in the top five with nine rushing touchdowns this season. Expect Smith to carry that drapery while Gurley is out. And while we don’t know how long that will be, the facts of the case that Gurley’s mystery injury is to the knees that have expensed him time each of the last two seasons stimulates Smith a profitable getaway even though the Falcons close with three of their last-place five games against the Saints and Bucs in the top two in DVOA run defense.

Recommended FAB offer (% of peak ): 1% Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Musicians on More Than 80% of Rosters to Add

Amari Cooper, WR, Dallas Cowboys( 96%/ 96%) Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington Football Team( 96%/ 94%) Mike Davis, RB, Carolina Panthers( 96%/ 92%) Antonio Brown, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers( 96%/ 78%) Kenyan Drake, RB, Arizona Cardinals( 95%/ 95%) Chase Claypool, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers( 95%/ 92%) Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers( 95%/ 92%) Kenny Golladay, WR, Detroit Lions( 94%/ 94%) D’Andre Swift, RB, Detroit Lions( 94%/ 93%) Rob Gronkowski, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers( 92%/ 94%) Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers( 91%/ 96%) Melvin Gordon, RB, Denver Broncos( 91%/ 94%) Diontae Johnson, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (8 9 %/ 93%) David Montgomery, RB, Chicago Bears ( 89%/ 93%) Brandin Concocts, WR, Houston Texans ( 88% /8 7 %) Raheem Mostert, RB, San Francisco 49 ers (8 5 %/ 90%) Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia Eagles( 77% /8 2 %) Nyheim Hines, RB, Indianapolis Colts( 73% /8 1 %)

Players on More Than 20% of Rosters You Can Drop

Will Fuller, WR, Houston Texans( 95%/ 96%) Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals( 92% /8 8 %) A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals( 57%/ 47%) Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints( 55%/ 66%) T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts( 46%/ 38%) Michael Gallup, WR, Dallas Cowboys( 41%/ 42%) Adrian Peterson, RB, Detroit Lions( 35%/ 46%) Henry Ruggs, WR, Las Vegas Raiders( 34%/ 28%) Julian Edelman, WR, New England Patriots( 34%/ 26%) Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins( 32%/ 25%) Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals( 31%/ 28%) Joshua Kelley, RB, Los Angeles Chargers( 30%/ 20%) Kerryon Johnson, RB, Detroit Lions( 30%/ 15%) Odell Beckham, WR, Cleveland Browns( 29%/ 24%) Matt Breida, RB, Miami Dolphins( 28%/ 22%) Justin Jackson, RB, Los Angeles Chargers( 27%/ 21%) Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants( 25%/ 24%) Daniel Jones, QB, New York Giants( 23%/ 35%) Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos( 22%/ 16%) Rex Burkhead, RB, New England Patriots( 21%/ 17%) Preston Williams, WR, Miami Dolphins( 20%/ 11%) Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys( 17%/ 20%) Sony Michel, RB, New England Patriots( 13%/ 20%)

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