Seventh Day Adventure: Week 15 Ian Boyd 11 Dec 2020, 01:50 pm
We’re getting close to Heisman Trophy finalist season, championship selects, and playoff picks. Week 14 returned a little less COVID intrigue to the season, other than giving us the BYU vs. Coastal Carolina game, and now we wait to see how the season resolves and what sort of postseason the boast is able to build.
BYU vs. Coastal Carolina was undoubtedly the large-scale narration of the weekend. The Cougars took the game against the undefeated Chanticleers on short notice and organized a sort of Group of 5 championship exhibition of styles. Shockingly, BYU got a lot more than I think they agreement for and went down 22 -1 7. A fascinating matchup in the game was between BYU’s star nose tackle Khyiris Tonga, a 6-foot-4 and 321 -pound behemoth, against Coastal Carolina’s center Sam Thompson, who’s 5-foot-9 and 290 pounds. With onus of doubled squads, option intrigues, traps, and transfers mixed in, the Chanticleers came out OK in that matchup. They also forestalled BYU’s potent offense, led by Zach Wilson, by propping the pellet for 37:51 of recreation clock and turning over the Cougars with an interception, a fumble, and a turnover on downs. It was a fun game and a huge win for the undefeated Sun Belt team — what a season it has been for that conference.
Elsewhere, Alabama demolished LSU; Iowa State and Oklahoma locked up places in the Big 12 Championship Game; and Ohio State facilitated their skimpy resume by spanking Michigan State 52 -1 2. This week we’ll get some matchups that should make for an enjoyable Saturday, including some enormous conflict battles, but The Game has been canceled due to COVID questions at Michigan. That will develop interesting questions about whether Ohio State can play in the Big Ten Championship Game or be selected for the playoff.
All eras are listed as Eastern.
Georgia( -1 3) at Missouri — Saturday, 12 p.m.( SECN)
Overall Georgia( 6-2) Missouri( 5-3)
F /+ 9 60
FEI 8 46
When Georgia has the projectile Pique Defense
FEI 23 69
SP+ 34 37
IsoPPP+ 60 43
Rushing success rates 15 107
Passing success rates 94 39
When Missouri has the chunk Protection Offense
FEI 6 43
SP+ 2 94
IsoPPP+ 15 90
Rushing success rates 13 67
Passing success rate 72 34
Georgia’s season was altered this year by injuries that sapped their roster of the strong necessary to compete with fellow SEC blue-chips Alabama and Florida. The Bulldogs got hammered in both races by the potent legislating assaults from the Crimson Tide and Gators and couldn’t keep up with their own offense. One major shortcoming for the Bulldogs was the unavailability of transport quarterback J.T. Daniels, who was limited in fall camp by trauma and got the call to start after the Florida defeat vanquished Georgia’s season.
In two competitions since against Mississippi State and South Carolina, Daniels has thrown 54 progress for 540 grounds at 10.0 gardens per attempt with six touchdowns and one interception. His ability to stand tall in the pocket and unfold the field vertically throws Georgia an extra dimension that Stetson Bennett paucities and was inconsistent from Jake Fromm in 2019. From here on out Georgia stands out as a team that is building something superb and extremely terrifying for the rest of the SEC for the 2021 season, when Daniels will return at the helm behind a more experienced offensive line after a full offseason of work in offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s system and with Georgia’s receivers.
Missouri’s season has quietly been moderately promising for first-year head coach Eli Drinkwitz. They settled on redshirt freshman quarterback Connor Bazelak over TCU transfer Shawn Robinson, sacrificing fast and dual-threat ability for improved elapsing. Drinkwitz has been able to keep the run game becoming just fine without Robinson’s ability to handle option conceptions, mingling in a variety of blocking strategies and directions for wizard running back Larry Rountree III, who has 170 carries for 835 grounds at 4.9 gardens per carry with 11 scurrying touchdowns as the primary weapon on offense.
He’ll face a real challenge compile that work against Georgia, who returns nose tackle Jordan Davis healthy for this game to help free up speedy linebackers Monty Rice and Nakobe Dean to track Rountree’s trajectory from the backfield. The Bulldogs, when healthy and going strong on security, are very good at limiting fight racing strikes to minimal incomes that don’t move the orders efficiently. Missouri will be up against it trying to find angles and fringes and it may come down to how well Bazelak locates targets such as Keke Chism down the field when they are getting man coverage from the Georgia secondary.
Missouri’s defense has had a solid time and are a similarly interesting experiment for the Georgia offense and Daniels as a passer. Drinkwitz moved viral online for a video where he reacts with delightful excitement to the news of Dallas cornerback Ennis Rakestraw committing to his Tigers. Rakestraw has been an immediate boost to their defense, breaking up six moves as a rookie starter on the outside. Missouri has had a nice move of good inside linebackers in recent years, and they are maintaining it thus far under Drinkwitz with Nick Bolton extending the nature this season with a team-leading 80 undertakes, 7.5 undertakes for loss, and two sacks and joined by large-hearted Devin Nicholson.
The 2020 Tigers cannot accommodated their own in the box against Georgia’s large-hearted, strong offense route but will probably be willing to test their regions against Daniels and the Bulldogs passing game in order to bring a safety down. Most of the best Tigers, including the specifies mentioned above and young edge rusher Trajan Jeffcoat, are either underclassmen or otherwise have a year or two of eligibility remaining. With a young squad and first-year head coach, there’s nothing to stop them from dallying aggressively and making some hunks while developing for future seasons. That’s a risky combination for Georgia if they aren’t healthy and focused enough to give them their ordinary shot.
Watch for 😛 TAGEND
Georgia’s quarterback J.T. Daniels, whose frolic this year imparts the Bulldogs National Championship hopes for 2021. Is Georgia going to be health fairly up front to shut down Missouri’s multi-faceted rushing attack? Georgia’s young star receiver George Pickens back in the lineup and facing Missouri’s star freshman cornerback Ennis Rakestraw.
FEI Outright Pick: Georgia by 11.1
Navy at Army( -6. 5) — 3 p. m.( CBS)
Overall Navy( 3-6) Army( 7-2)
F /+ 106 62
FEI 106 56
When Navy has the pellet Pique Protection
FEI 101 53
SP+ 103 44
IsoPPP+ 108 42
Rushing success rate 115 4
Passing success rates 117 59
When Army has the missile Defense Offense
FEI 94 64
SP+ 102 75
IsoPPP+ 51 122
Rushing success rate 91 66
Passing success rate 76 124
College football’s greatest struggle! It’s hard not to enjoy this game for all the pageantry and the consented terms in which both teams pummel each other with triple-option football until one overcomes the other. Navy maintains the edge in the line and won in 2019, but Army won the three years prior and even when they don’t seem particularly strong tends to make this into a real game. Neither squad engenders an advantage against the other due to different tactics in this game; each force knows how to defend the triple option and what’s going to happen.
This year, though, might be something of certain exceptions. Navy’s season has started horribly wrong, commencing with a 55 -3 flogging at the sides of BYU, after which psyche coach Ken Niumatololo revealed that his unit hadn’t practiced any live reps going into the game as a COVID precaution. The lack of a real fall camp to fine-tune the skills needed to grind out acquires with triple option football or good defense has been evident all time in the gambling of the Midshipmen.
Meanwhile, Army has been pounding away with 260 -pound fullback Jakobi Buchanan( 383 hastening gardens, 4.4 grounds per carry, five touchdowns) and 230 -pound Sandon McCoy( 227 racing grounds, 3.4 grounds per carry, 10 rushing touchdowns ). The Black Knights have wheeled with three different quarterbacks this season and had some success with each of them due to the continuous plodding mood of the race tournament with traps and fullback dive plays.
As a beneficial illustration of where these teams are this season, the Knights are 11 th nationally in third-down offense with a transition frequency of 51. 2% while Navy is 96 th with a charge of 35.9%. Navy has struggled mightily to supplant ace quarterback Malcolm Perry, “whos had” 295 carries last year for 2,017 gardens at 6.8 yards per carry with 21 hastening touchdowns. Niumatalolo’s version of the triple alternative tends to fare best when the quarterback is a real weapon off undertake, while the Army game is all about guiding fullback dives and unbalanced designates and retaining it up on third-and-2 or even fourth-and-3. They’re betting you can’t stop them from picking up 10 yards in four tries.
The Midshipmen don’t have a quarterback selected for this game hitherto, and the pooled efforts of Perry’s replacings have run for time 151 grounds all season at 2.9 yards per carry. That drop-off is massive and a excellent instance of their struggle to master their basic identity this season without the potential benefits of a ordinary offseason. The saving grace for Navy in this game is their own security, which has been decent and could give them some possibility of obstructing the Army attack. The center of their security is inside linebacker Diego Fagot, a 6-foot-3, 240 -pounder who has 67 attacks, 10 attacks for loss, and three sackings. They regularly stunt him up over the center and give him blitz -Agaps to “blow ones stack” defend designs.
Behind him, safety Kevin Brennan is often on clean-up duty and patrols at the second level to eliminate large-hearted play-acts from developing. Brennan will be needed in this game to clean up the lurch play while Fagot is their exclusively real hope of stopping the Army fullbacks between the attacks and frustrating the Knights from controlling the game and the clock with variou gave drives. If this is a lower-scoring slog then Navy has a chance; if it’s about precision in the triple option, they’ve shown all time they aren’t that squad this season.
Watch for 😛 TAGEND
Who will get the nod at quarterback for Navy in college football’s most intense rivalry game? Can Navy’s star linebacker Diego Fagot allow the Midshipmen to eliminate the Army inside roll game? The spectacle, attendees, and trick movements from option football sets.
FEI Outright Pick: Army by 13.7
North Carolina( -3. 5) at Miami — 3:30 p.m.( ABC)
Overall North Carolina( 7-3) Miami (8 -1)
F /+ 15 14
FEI 24 17
When North Carolina has the clod Pique Security
FEI 6 30
SP+ 4 12
IsoPPP+ 4 35
Rushing success rates 11 68
Passing success rates 12 27
When Miami has the lump Security Offense
FEI 83 17
SP+ 43 24
IsoPPP+ 81 13
Rushing success rate 95 93
Passing success rate 21 59
Clemson and Notre Dame are locked in to face each other in the ACC title game, but Miami is still 8-1 and North Carolina has had a great time, so this game still wants something for establishing the rest of the pecking order for the documents of the conference. The Tar Heels have been propelled predominantly by their offense this season — offense and pass rush.
Tar Heels offensive coordinator Phil Longo comes from the Air Raid tree but has an aggressive method that pairs vertical alternative roadway with running plays on RPOs. Quarterback Sam Howell has hurled for 3,129 grounds at 10.5 yards per try this year with 26 touchdowns to just six interceptions. He’ll reached Dazz Newsome( 46 catches, 601 gardens, five touchdowns) over the middle-of-the-road and Dyami Brown( 51 catches, 932 yards, eight touchdowns) on the outside, and foes get left in a bind. The damage North Carolina can do throwing to those guys downfield on RPOs is great, but if you try to back off your defenders to cover them up, the two-headed running back tandem of Javonte Williams and Michael Carter has a combined 266 carries for 1,841 gardens at 6.9 yards per carry and 23 touchdowns.
It’s a serious dilemma most easily solved by a unit that can play man coverage. RPO-running crews often struggle to pick up continuous gains on the sand if they can’t generate light cartons and angles for their athletes with bound and vertical pass alternatives that force-out defenses to dare them to run. There’s too the option of playing two-high and expecting the linebackers and defensive linemen to hold up without the cavalry, but that’s a difficult way to approach the problem for most programs.
Miami tends to bring the calvary when they need to stop the run. Their passing tacklers are refuges Bubba Bolden, who hangs out in the boundary and plummets down to help stop up the flee, and fellow refuge Amari Carter. Third safety Gurvan Hall often mans up a slot as the nickel underneath, and they are effective covering the midriff of the field. The challenge is pairing Brown outside; the Miami pass rush is good with missions Jaelan Phillips and Quincy Roche, but you generally can’t get pressure in time to stop a horizontal RPO. You have to take away the first predict for the quarterback and at that point the lack of protection can bring the pique down.
On the other side of the equation, North Carolina hasn’t toy enormous justification, but their pass defense figures have been solid. The pass scurry is good, the Fox brethren( Tomon and Tomari) have a compounded 9.5 bags, linebacker Chazz Surratt has another six, and then four other Tar Heels defenders have at least two sacks apiece. Defensive coordinator Jay Bateman adorations to deliver distres in groups of four and five while sink advocates off the line of scrimmage on zone blitzes. They get creased against the run at times and struggle to make consistent stops, but they do regularly outwit legislating designs.
It’s a hard matchup, though, against Miami, whose rolled competition is actually somewhat inconsistent at moving the bonds but very effective at engendering gap and penalise squads for large-hearted toys. Quarterback D’Eriq King has 467 racing gardens and four touchdowns and is a constant threat to break free into open grass. The Hurricanes have also been able to get receiver Mike Harley croaking; he has 43 catches for 653 yards and five touchdowns and wreaks some added explosiveness to the offense. What is the case when a boom-or-bust run defense faces a boom-or-bust spread control theory?
Watch for 😛 TAGEND
Can Miami match up with North Carolina’s knowledge ability in offensive coordinator Phil Longo’s RPO offense? Will the North Carolina blitzing protection put down Miami’s offense or get caught by their speeding at quarterback and receiver? Age-old rivalries — North Carolina intelligence coach-and-four Mack Brown formerly fuelled Miami head coach Manny Diaz when they were at Texas together earlier in the activities of the decade.
FEI Outright Pick: Miami by 5.5
Wisconsin( collect ’em) at Iowa — 3:30 p.m.( B1GN)
Overall Wisconsin( 2-2) Iowa( 5-2)
F /+ 8 12
FEI 7 12
When Wisconsin has the projectile Offense Protection
FEI 27 8
SP+ 35 7
IsoPPP+ 116 3
Rushing success rate 51 36
Passing success rate 90 38
When Iowa has the bullet Justification Offense
FEI 4 51
SP+ 1 57
IsoPPP+ 29 117
Rushing success rates 1 33
Passing success rate 8 42
Wisconsin vs. Iowa has been a good rivalry in the era of the Big Ten West division. The tournament has often judged the split crown and the conqueror gets the Heartland Trophy, a brass cop, one of college football’s countless ridiculous and splendid awards and knowledge. The Badgers have won seven of the last eight games, albeit generally by quite narrow margins, and hence have ranged the West division during that distance of period with four segment treetops to Iowa’s one.
Both of these crews are the purest form of Big Ten West forces: they have huge play along the lines, frequently good tight boundaries, good linebackers, and then their ceiling in a afforded time often hinges on the relative character of the out-of-state skill athletes that ought to have recruited to the program. In general, you don’t identify either team with explosiveness, but hard-nosed defense and physical race strikes. In the case of Wisconsin, it’s often about the strength operated tournament, while Iowa under Kirk Ferentz is a wide zone move team.
This year it’s lastly Iowa that has the very best boasted geniu on their listing. The Badgers have circled around to Jalen Berger at running back and he has run for 267 gardens at 5.9 yards per carry and a compose in some recent activity. Iowa has more of a committee, but Tyler Goodson is the main guy with 656 grounds at 5.0 yards per carry and six ratings while ex-serviceman Mekkhi Sargent lends another 381 yards at 6.0 yards per carry and seven touchdowns. The passing game for Wisconsin looked like it might be a difference-maker in their Week 1 beatdown of Illinois, but since then quarterback Graham Mertz has averaged simply 6.8 grounds per attempt with eight touchdowns to four interceptions.
Iowa’s defense in 2020 is about as good as it generally is and will be a exceedingly grim assessment for the Badgers. Nebraska made a little headway against them a couple of weeks ago by coming their passing game travelling when the Hawkeyes were sold out to stop the run. Wisconsin will strive if the Hawkeyes can play back in basi defense and force them to earn their channel down the field without break-dance big-hearted performances with pitches over the top or wipes to the perimeter paired with the strength moved tournament. Weakside linebacker Nick Niemann will be key for the Hawkeyes in limiting both.
Neither quarterback stands out in this matchup as both teams are breaking in younger participates. Iowa returned a lot of quality receivers from a good 2019 guiding attack with Nate Stanley, but Spencer Petras has not shaped the best possible use of it with 1,358 grounds at 6.2 yards per attempt with seven touchdowns and five interceptions. Iowa’s cadre of skilled receivers have been less of the emphasis and Ferentz has tried to support Petras with the range competition instead. It has worked out fairly well, but been put forward short against Northwestern, which will likely keep the Hawkeyes from earning the West again and boosting to the Big Ten Championship Game. They’ll have to make the most of a chance to beat Wisconsin and brought before the brass bull.
Wisconsin has played terrific run defense this year. Their ability to play some press-man coverage outside with Rachad Wildgoose and Faion Hicks has offset it very difficult to deal with their collect of sturdy linemen, linebackers, and safeties in the middle of the field. Iowa may not be able to do much about it with Petras at the helm, but perhaps they can give some drives with the play-action rollout game.
Watch for 😛 TAGEND
Can either of these struggling piques score against the very sound and strong defenses lined up across from them? Does either crew have the racing attempt or quarterback to employ them over the top in a low-scoring mud fight? The appearance of the Heartland Trophy, a brass patrolman that goes to the annual champion of this competition.
FEI Outright Pick: Wisconsin by 0.4
USC( -3) at UCLA — 7:30 p.m.( ABC)
Overall USC( 4-0) UCLA( 3-2)
F /+ 17 33
FEI 18 31
When USC has the dance Pique Defense
FEI 21 39
SP+ 10 68
IsoPPP+ 72 11
Rushing success rates 32 119
Passing success rate 39 22
When UCLA has the dance Justification Offense
FEI 19 36
SP+ 35 30
IsoPPP+ 101 93
Rushing success rate 49 29
Passing success rate 33 63
This rivalry game has some recreation stakes with the Trojans sitting at 3-0 with a chance to play for the Pac-1 2 championship if they can beat their crosstown competitors to conclude the season and finish 4-0. Of trend the Colorado Buffaloes are also 4-0 on the season and the Pac-1 2 has a potential difficulty on their hands if the Trojans win this game and breakthrough to the title.
Colorado had both their Arizona State and USC sports nullified due to COVID controversies for their rival. The Buffaloes added San Diego State into the schedule so they could play more tournaments and won that contest. If USC is able to finish 4-0 in Pac-1 2 movement while Colorado finishes 3-0, the Trojans will advance but there will be a brouhaha over the legitimacy of this deed — peculiarly when other teams and conferences have shown some flexibility to move games and schedule added competitions. None of that matters, though, if the Trojans lose to the Bruins as they won’t have an extra league win over Colorado.
The Bruins are 3-2 and experiencing far and away their best season more under Chip Kelly, who’s in Year 3 now as the front instruct. After leading 3-9 and 4-8 in his first two seasons, Kelly now has the Bruins with a winning record and a chance to spoil the season for their contender. This year’s Bruins have been able to run the pellet more efficiently than in years past. Lead back Demetric Felton has 578 scurrying grounds at 5.2 gardens per carry and five touchdowns while understudy Brittain Brown includes 290 at 6.4 gardens per carry with three touchdowns. Quarterback Dorian Green-Thompson has been able to protect the pellet and has a located a huge boost being able to throw to tighten aim Greg Dulcich, who has 16 catches for 312 gardens and two compositions. The Bruins’ two damages this season were higher-scoring games and the offense has prevented them in every contest.
USC’s defense has been solid this year under new defensive coordinator Todd Orlando, who was fired from his occupation at Texas after a calamitous 2019 season. Orlando has not yet engendered much push with his aggressive blitz intrigues, but the Trojans give full play solid protection with returning safeties Talanoa Hufanga and Isaiah Pola-Mao roaming in the middle of the field and cleaning up behind the blitzes. Hufanga in particular makes the team in undertakes and has three interceptions poising around the box as the strong security while Pola-Mao tends to play on the back end as the deep safety. Juco transfer defensive death Nick Figueroa has been their most disorderly presence with six undertakes for loss and 3.5 sacks.
Kelly’s strategy will be to try and confuse the Trojans with his spread-option intrigues and stop Hufanga out of the picture by referring tight discontinue Dulcich out on roads for Green-Thompson to smacked if Hufanga doesn’t honor that menace and snouts around the box against the flee game.
UCLA will need a good plan for scoring points as their own defense will be up against it trying to stop the USC attack. Trojans quarterback Kedon Slovis has picked up where he left off in 2019 with 1,257 passing yards at 7.6 gardens per attempt with 10 touchdowns to two interceptions. USC has been able to move the missile frequently in the air spreading it around between four different receivers, many of which are large-scale, chains-moving targets that are difficult to match up against. The top guy is Amon-Ra St. Brown, a former five-star recruit from local private school powerhouse Mater Dei high school. St. Brown has 26 catches for 331 and four touchdowns and helps generating some explosiveness and rapidity to the equation opposite Tyler Vaughns. On the inside, Slovis has 6-foot-5 tighten cease/ slot hybrid Drake London and 6-foot-3, 220 -pound onetime five-star Bru McCoy.
The Bruins defense this season has settled on using sub-packages with various defensive backs to try and contain defending offenses, which is a good start in facing this Trojans offense.
Watch for 😛 TAGEND
UCLA tight goal Greg Dulcich going up against USC strong security Talanoa Hufanga. Can UCLA match up with all of USC’s dangerous receivers in the Air Raid offense? Pac-12 Championship Game connections — there’s a lot of drama around the process but a UCLA win would contradict it.
FEI Outright Pick: USC by 1.9
FEI PICKS: WEEK 15
Favorite Spread Underdog FEI Pick FEI Pick
Against the Spread Ian’s Pick
Against the Spread
Georgia 13 at Missouri Georgia Missouri Georgia at Army 6.5 Navy Army Army Navy North Carolina 3.5 at Miami Miami Miami Miami Wisconsin Even at Iowa Wisconsin Wisconsin Iowa USC 3 at UCLA USC USC UCLA
FEI collects against the spread in Week 14: 4-2
FEI picks against the spread this year: 43 -3 2-1
Ian’s collects against the spread in Week 14: 3-3
Ian’s Picks against the spread this year: 41 -3 4-1
by Aaron Brooks G … // Dec 11, 2020 – 2:24 pm
Colorado had both their Arizona State and USC plays offset due to COVID controversies for their opposing. The Buffaloes added San Diego State into the schedule so they could play more recreations and won that contest. If USC is able to finish 4-0 in Pac-1 2 dally while Colorado finishes 3-0, the Trojans will advance but there will be a brouhaha over the legitimacy of this title
It was always nakedly obvious that some squads would opportunistically use Covid to bounce a game to screw over another team.
I’m stunned nothing of the documents of the conference accounted for this.
Read more: footballoutsiders.com